The Future is Now

4th IR Technologies and Libraries

BGSU Starship Robot.jpg/ Wikimedia commons

I attended “library school” from 1992-1994 at the University of Texas at Austin, which if memory serves correctly was the first library science graduate program to offer a class about the internet. In those early days, MLIS students were not able to do much more than telnet to a few sites, including other libraries.

Admittedly, I was no visionary. As far as the internet, I couldn’t see what the “big deal” was, as you could just go to a library and find the same information. I certainly did not foresee browsers, e-commerce, or social media!

We are now in the midst of another technological sea change, the “Fourth Industrial Revolution,” but it remains difficult to predict which concepts will succeed or fail (Pets.com, anyone?), how they will develop, and how they will impact society. I try to remind myself as I read both critics and cheerleaders of 4th IR tech that not only are those factors unknown but that most technologies end up delivering mixed results. Three decades on I am sure we could all make equally long lists of both negative and positive effects of the internet. While I will touch on a few competing perspectives on 4th IR technologies in this post, libraries will be in the position of servicing a wide variety of interests and viewpoints.

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But first, what exactly is the Fourth Industrial Revolution? The term was coined in 2016 by Klaus Schwab, founder of the World Economic Forum, to describe “a technological revolution that is blurring the lines between the physical, digital, and biological spheres.” As described further by Lateef Ayinde and Hal Kirkwood, the physical sphere includes intelligent robots, autonomous drones, driverless cars, 3d printing, and smart sensors; the digital sphere includes the internet of things, services, and data; and the biological sphere includes synthetic biology and individual genetic make-up (although the biological sphere seems the least related to libraries, even there we see libraries making prosthetic limbs with 3d printers).

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The Fourth Industrial Revolution timelines I have found posit that approximately 100 years lapsed between the mechanization brought by Industry 1.0 and the beginning of the mass production of Industry 2.0 (roughly 1780 to 1870), 100 years lapsed between Industry 2.0 and the automation brought by Industry 3.0 (roughly 1870 to 1970), but only about 50 years have occurred between Industry 3.0 and the introduction of the cyber physical systems of Industry 4.0 (1970 to today). So you have reason to feel that the pace of change is accelerating!

Digging deeper into the digital 4th IR technologies, the “internet of things” is defined as smart devices that can harvest data and talk to each other. Many of the illustrations of this concept place the smartphone at the center; there are already concerns regarding the smartphone and increasing surveillance. Here I think the library, with it’s long tradition of protecting privacy, will have a leg up.

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Data, another digital component, is often referred to as “the new oil,” but, according to Mavuduru, it differs from oil in some essential ways. It is not destroyed through usage and adds more value as more of it becomes available (large amounts of data are needed to fuel AI, for example), and it comes with issues of privacy and ethics, issues with which librarians are especially equipped to address. Relevant to libraries are the debates that are occurring regarding student privacy and educational data mining.

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Key elements driving the 4th IR are artificial intelligence, blockchain, virtual reality, and nanotechnology (science, engineering, and technology conducted at the nanoscale). While most librarians are familiar with artificial intelligence and virtual reality, blockchain can be a difficult concept to grasp, although much like driving a car, one does not have to understand exactly how it operates in order to use it.

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In essence, blockchain is a digital ledger that is decentralized and anonymous (and thus hospitable to crime). Some blockchains allow the issuer of the coin access to all data collected on the electronic chain. According to this ICAEW history, blockchain made its public debut in 2008 when developer(s) working under the pseudonym Satoshi Nakamoto released a white paper establishing the blockchain model. Two other important years listed by ICAEW are 2009, when the first blockchain was implemented as the public ledger for Bitcoin transactions, and 2014, when blockchain technology was separated from currency, creating the possibility for its use in other types of transactions. This development is referred to as Blockchain 2.0 (the original and largest blockchain still orchestrates Bitcoin transactions). The Ethereum blockchain system introduced computer programs into the blocks, representing financial instruments and allowing for what is known as smart contracts.

A significant stumbling block with Bitcoin is that it is very energy-intensive, as computers must compete against each other to process transactions and get rewards. Ethereum 2.0 will shift to a "proof-of-stake" (PoS) model from a "proof-of-work" (PoW) model, which is much less energy intensive. The full release of Ethereum 2.0 is not slated to happen until later in 2023. Additionally, there are other cryptocurrencies being built with more sustainable models.

Blockchain enables several developments in addition to smart contracts. It could help build smart cities, which could use data to improve efficiency and quality of life, and undergirds social impact bonds, which fund social services through public-private partnerships and performance-based contracts.

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Alison McDowell of the blog Wrench in the Gears is one of the fiercest critics of blockchain, fearing the potential of smart contracts and smart city surveillance to imprison humanity in a digital panopticon. She views social impact bonds, in which financial incentives are tied to human outcomes, as “gambling on our futures.”

Certainly there are aspects to 4th IR technologies that can seem dystopian, as when the New York Police Department deployed a robot dog in 2021, which was later repealed due to backlash. As early as 2016, Syrian refugees in Jordan’s Azraq camp paid for food with a scan of their eyes, the purchases recorded on a computing platform based on blockchain. In 2022, the U.S. Treasury Department planned to utilize facial recognition software called ID.me, which would require tax filers to authenticate their identification with selfies, but reconsidered due to privacy concerns.

SpotMini, Boston Dynamics, Robot.jpg, Wikimedia commons

Central bank digital currencies, or CBDCs, are another concern for privacy advocates, who recommend maintaining cash payments as an option in order to ensure the future of unmonitored transactions. The Atlantic Council is keeping a Central Bank Digital Currency Tracker as the number of countries piloting CBDCs grows.

Others are much more optimistic, if not downright utopian, about the potential of blockchain. Due to its limited quantity, they see Bitcoin as a better measure of value than the dollar, and they champion cryptocurrencies as a means of escaping central banks. Some even envision the creation of parallel societies through blockchain. Others resist the use of cryptocurrencies as speculative investments. Blockchain enables alternatives to Big Tech and forms the basis of Web3, envisioned by advocates as a decentralized online system where platforms and apps will be owned by the users themselves, who will earn their ownership through development and maintenance.

Web3 enthusiasm reminds me of the initial promise and hype in the early years of the internet. Web3 developments, such as the app LBRY or the browser Brave, offer crypto tokens for viewing ads, but whether a significant number of people have the technical chops to truly participate in the development of Web3 remains to be seen. Jack Dorsey contends that Web3 will be owned by the big players.

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As with Amazon, smartphones, Lyft, and now Apple Pay, I imagine the majority of people will adopt 4th IR technologies due to the convenience factor or for the financial incentives, even when they are aware of the potential downsides. In an interview with Glenn Greenwald, Bitcoin advocate Alex Gladstein of the Human Rights Foundation brings up the fact that for many people, Bitcoin represents one of the few avenues for building wealth. Play-to-earn gaming, which may eventually replace regular gaming altogether, is seen by McDowell as glorified child labor, but it does offer children and teenagers the opportunity to earn money while having fun playing games. The Together Panel Digital ID's: A threat to privacy and freedom? discussed both the more ominous implications of digital ID’s and CBDCs while recognizing the ease and convenience they offer.

While techies are focused on the potential of cryptocurrencies, artists are beginning to view NFTs (non-fungible tokens) as a way to produce and sell art outside of the traditional art market (the San Jose State University King Library recently hosted a program on this). NFTs are, quite simply, unique digital assets. Ownership can be assigned on the blockchain or even by certificate, as described in this Wired podcast about selling a tweet. Lest one think this is a marginal endeavor, the United States Post Office is now selling NFTs.

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In 2021, beeple's 'The First 5000 Days', the first purely digital NFT based artwork offered by a major auction house, sold for $69,346,250. This placed beeple (the artist Mike Winkelmann) as among the top three most valuable living artists. Crypto investor Vignesh Sundaresan, also known as MetaKovan, told CNBC's "Squawk Box" that “he has no regrets paying $69 million for what many say is simply a JPEG and an hyperlink.” Viewing this sale as the “starting point of a new age of digital art,”   Sundaresan indicated that while he has no interest in selling the piece he may find other ways to monetize it. Is this all a bid to lure us into the Metaverse? People are now even buying virtual real estate.

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What does all this mean for libraries? Some libraries have already experimented with delivery of books by drone or BookBot, while others offer virtual reality programming and teach classes on robotics. Libraries can now collect immersive reality books. Artificial intelligence may take over some of the more routine tasks library workers do, but will not replace the need for library staff. The U.S. Library of Congress has released an AI tool that searches historical newspaper collections and is exploring the responsible use of machine learning to access collections, while experimenting with combining crowdsourcing and machine learning workflows. Several library systems are permitting access to library buildings during unstaffed hours through open+access and maintaining patron privacy when doing so. LibChain, described as “open, verifiable, and anonymous,” could allow libraries to provide a library book directly to a user without the user having to bring the book back to the library, leading to the possibility of “decentralized libraries.” Blockchain technology could impact e-book publishing and scholarly publishing and digital rights management. Library donors could bid on NFTs in online auctions. The Edmonton Public Library has secured the first book published as an NFT.

We can assume that tech education will become an even more significant part of our job as librarians. While estimates of job displacement due to automation run anywhere from 9% to 47%, library patrons who are in the the job market will want to learn new technical skills, from basic to advanced. People may want to learn new skills in order to participate in Web3. Children as young as 5 are now attending Crypto Kids Camp in Los Angeles! In order to do laundry in my apartment building, I can no longer use quarters but now must use the app PayRange; patrons may soon be coming to the library for the tech instruction they need simply to accomplish everyday tasks.

On the flip side, libraries may see an increase in patrons desiring to, in varying degrees, go “off grid,” self-educate, learn traditional skills, or simply “unplug.” The increase in homeschooling that began during the pandemic may remain. If Universal Basic Income is implemented, it could lead to a further increase in the desire to learn traditional skills or to homeschool as well as to start small businesses. Librarians themselves are beginning to advocate for slow librarianship.

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Libraries have always excelled in offering free, unmonitored exploration and in person community conversations, which become exceedingly important during a time of rapid disruption. Library staff has experience reaching out to their communities to ask what kind of community they would like to see, through methods learned from The Harwood Institute, and they have held reading programs on titles such as The Nature Fix: Why Nature Makes Us Happier, Healthier, and More Creative. Through book discussion groups, library patrons could learn the history and basics of cryptocurrencies through such titles as Cryptocurrencies and the Blockchain Revolution or delve into more advanced works. They could also debate the potential social ramifications of technology through books like Living With Robots or sci-fi works such as the recent The School for Good Mothers or the classics We or The Machine Stops.

As I wrote in the beginning of this post, we cannot know this early in the game which technologies will succeed or fail. We cannot entirely predict which innovations simply won’t function well on either a logistical or technical level or which technologies the public will adopt or reject, embrace or resist. In regards to our profession, libraries will continue to grapple with accommodating these technologies while protecting privacy and intellectual freedom.

Through their “Library of the Future” initiative, the American Library Association has compiled a lengthy list of trends that may impact libraries, from “smart cities,” to “internet of things,” to “data everywhere,” to “unplugged,” with nuanced descriptions of each. It’s a great starting point for anyone wanting to delve into these topics further and provides some indication of where libraries could be heading over the next three decades.

Please note: To promote viewpoint diversity, Heterodoxy in the Stacks invites constructive dissent and disagreement in the form of guest posts. While articles published on Heterodoxy in the Stacks are not peer- or editorially-reviewed, all posts must model the HxA Way. Content is attributed to the individual contributor(s).

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